2:00PM Water Cooler 2/6/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Track of the Day

Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Adamstown; Mt. Ephriam Street, Frederick, Maryland, United States. “Filtered at 250 Hz. Different Behaviors: Promote. Habitat: Forest, Deciduous Forest.”

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels.” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“McCarthy breaks with Greene on demise of Ashli Babbitt” [The Hill]. “Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) broke with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Thursday when requested in regards to the demise of Ashli Babbitt, who was shot and killed by Capitol police through the Jan. 6, 2021, assault, concluding she was not murdered, as Greene has stated. ‘I feel the police officer did his job,’ McCarthy informed reporters when requested if he agreed with Greene that Babbitt was murdered.” • RINO.

“Sorry, not sorry: Some 1/6 rioters change tune after apology” [Associated Press]. “Showing earlier than a federal choose after pleading responsible to a felony cost within the lethal Capitol riot, former West Virginia lawmaker Derrick Evans expressed regret for letting down his household and his group, saying he made a ‘essential mistake.’ Lower than a yr later, Evans is portraying himself as a sufferer of a politically motivated prosecution as he runs to serve in the identical constructing he stormed on Jan. 6, 2021. Evans is now calling the Justice Division’s Jan. 6 prosecutions a ‘miscarriage of justice’ and describes himself on twitter as a ‘J6 Patriot.’ ‘Some ppl have stated I must apologize and condemn #J6 if I wish to win my election because the media will assault me,’ he tweeted not too long ago after asserting his bid for a U.S. Home seat in 2024. ‘I can’t compromise my values or beliefs. That’s what politicians do. We want Patriots not politicians.’ Evans joins a collection of Jan. 6 defendants who — when up in opposition to doable jail time in courtroom — have expressed remorse for becoming a member of the pro-Trump mob that rattled the foundations of American democracy solely to strike a distinct tone or downplay the riot after receiving their punishment.”

“High Jan. 6 investigator says FBI, different businesses might have performed extra to repel Capitol mob had they acted on intel” [NBC]. “The Home Jan. 6 committee concluded that the FBI and different federal safety businesses might have prevented a violent mob from overrunning the Capitol had they acted on the big quantity of intelligence collected beforehand, the chief investigator informed NBC Information in an unique interview — a judgment the committee disregarded of its televised hearings and remaining report. Former federal prosecutor Tim Heaphy, the committee’s chief investigative counsel, stated that whereas he endorses the panel’s most important discovering that then-President Donald Trump sparked the riot by urging protesters to go to the Capitol, his probe documented how federal regulation enforcement failures contributed to the debacle. Trump ‘was the proximate trigger. However for his phrases, and deeds, it wouldn’t have occurred,’ stated Heaphy, who led lots of the key witness interviews carried out by the committee. ‘That stated, what occurred on the Capitol was additionally affected by regulation enforcement failures to operationalize the ample intelligence that was current earlier than Jan. 6, in regards to the threats of violence.’ He added, ‘Regulation enforcement had a really direct function in contributing to the safety failures that led to the violence.’” • If — tinfoil hat time — failures they had been.

Biden Administration

Mission achieved (1):

Humorous how he doesn’t like to speak about how the vast majority of Individuals died beneath his watch. pic.twitter.com/6mcWVAAUlk

— FredoLives (@FredoLives) February 3, 2023

Mission achieved (2):

My dad used to say, “A job is about much more than a paycheck. It’s about your dignity.”

A job is a ticket to a brighter future. That’s why we’ve fought to convey unemployment to its lowest level in 50 years.

I gained’t cease working till everybody has a combating probability.

— President Biden (@POTUS) February 3, 2023

“A combating probability….” Till (see above) the percentages kick in.

2024

Why, the ingratitude:

If I had been the Iowa Democratic Celebration that stitched up the final caucuses in service to the institution and employed their most well-liked consultancy to steal votes from Sanders and provides them to Buttigieg, I’d be pissed. https://t.co/YLeWNLaqr8

— Marshall Steinbaum 🔥 (@Econ_Marshall) February 5, 2023

Nonetheless, you possibly can see why Clyburn wants his payoff.

Republican Funhouse

“The 5 Fundamental Factions Of The Home GOP” [FiveThirtyEight]. Reasonable institution (Reps. David Joyce of Ohio, Younger Kim of California, Nancy Mace of South Carolina); Conservative institution (Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Tom Emmer of Minnesota and Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy); Far-right institution (Outstanding members: Reps. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Patrick McHenry of North Carolina); Tea get together conservative (Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio, Byron Donalds of Florida, Chip Roy of Texas); Professional-Trump rebel (Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia). The “Freedom Caucus” is distributed throughout the “Far-right institution” and the “Tea get together conservatives.” • I dunno. I discover the reflexive resort to a spectrum somewhat than a discipline. What do readers suppose? I didn’t come up as a Republican, so these taxonomies aren’t simple for me to evaluate.

“Home votes to take away Omar from International Affairs panel as Democrats cry hypocrisy and ‘racism’” [Roll Call]. “‘Is anybody shocked that I’m being focused?’ Omar stated in an at occasions emotional Thursday ground speech, which was attended by giant numbers of the Home Democratic caucus who cheered her remarks at completely different factors. ‘Is anybody shocked that I’m by some means deemed unworthy to talk about American international coverage or that they see me as a strong voice that must be silenced? Frankly it’s anticipated as a result of once you push energy, energy pushes again.’” • “It’s alll in regards to the benjamins” is, in reality, true. AIPAC doesn’t slather all that money round for no cause. That stated, “If you push energy, energy pushes again.” I dunno. Possibly The Squad ought to attempt it?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Who’s in Cost of Your World View?” [Matt Bivens]. Bivens helped Taibbi set up information for The Twitter Information. “And, within the preliminary recordsdata we sifted by way of, I noticed proof for what I’d suspected beforehand, one thing the Information proceed to flesh out: That CIA, FBI and the remainder of the U.S. safety state — with little to no public dialogue, and doubtless illegally — have grow to be method too snug with policing what Individuals see, say and listen to on the Web. …Twitter workers might, for instance, stop an individual’s tweet from exhibiting up in searches; or stop a whole Twitter account from being seen by anybody that didn’t already comply with it. The corporate jargon for this was “visibility filtering”. They may and did filter an individual out of visibility, at any time when they felt that individual’s views ought to disappear….. Visibility filtering was additionally utilized to politicians. Nonetheless one would possibly really feel about Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, it’s startling to see that Twitter, with out informing her, labeled her Twitter account ‘not secure for work,’ as if it had been some kind of pornography web site, and likewise weighed it down with a ‘don’t amplify’ setting, which might lower its attain on searches and retweets… For those who suppose that is nearly “Republicans on Twitter” although, suppose once more. The Twitter Information present Fb’s method was no completely different — and this forces a reassessment of the allegations by Bernie Sanders that again in 2017, Fb “flipped a change” to in a single day cease engagement between the favored progressive and his supporters. ‘Bernie had this super rise on Fb. We had a very profitable on-line video program,’ remembers Ari Rabin-Havt, Sanders’ former marketing campaign supervisor, in this video (begin across the 22:30 mark). ‘We noticed our numbers rising, rising, rising. After which sooner or later, actually out of nowhere — that is the Senate workplace web page, the Fb web page — it stopped getting followers. It simply lifeless stopped.’ Conferences ensued with Fb, together with with Adam Mosseri, then answerable for Fb’s newsfeeds and now head of Instagram. ‘Throughout the assembly with Mosseri,’ Rabin-Havt recounted, ;it was revealed that Fb had modified a setting on its again finish that basically shut off the pipeline of latest subscribers to Bernie’s web page. They may not give you an inexpensive rationalization for the modified setting.’ Most likely it had one thing to do with Fb becoming a member of with the remainder of company media to maintain folks from seeing issues like this pro-Sanders video — nonetheless the most effective quick video ever about politics in America.”

“Congress is ready to reveal what will be the largest censorship system in U.S. historical past” [The Hill]. Except they produce one other yarn diagram like Benghazi. “The “Twitter recordsdata” revealed an FBI operation to watch and censor social media content material — an effort so overwhelming and intrusive that Twitter workers at one level complained internally that “they’re probing & pushing in all places.” The reviews have indicated that dozens of FBI staff labored on the identification and elimination of fabric on a variety of topics and that Twitter largely carried out their requests. Nor was it simply the FBI, apparently. Emails reveal FBI figures like a San Francisco assistant particular agent in cost asking Twitter executives to ‘invite an OGA’ (or ‘Different Authorities Group’) to an upcoming assembly. Per week later, Stacia Cardille, a senior Twitter authorized government, indicated the OGA was the CIA, an company beneath strict limits concerning home actions. Twitter’s personal ranks included dozens of ex-FBI brokers and executives, together with James Baker, who featured tremendously in prior FBI cases of alleged bias. The Twitter recordsdata additionally present numerous FBI places of work monitoring social media and flagging ‘deceptive’ info on numerous topics. The handfuls of disclosed emails are solely a fraction of Twitter’s recordsdata and don’t embrace still-undisclosed however obvious authorities coordination with Fb and different social media corporations. A lot of that work apparently was performed by way of the multi-agency International Affect Activity Power (FITF), which operated secretly it appears to censor residents. Paradoxically, through the outcry over establishing a Disinformation Governance Board on the Division of Homeland Safety, Biden administration officers needed to have recognized they already had been using an intensive censorship system. When the administration lastly relented and disbanded the disinformation board, that censorship work seems to have continued unimpeded by way of the FITF and company censors.” • Has Mush purged the spooks? Or are they nonetheless infesting Twitter? Readers?

* * *

“The Individuals Who Are Fleeing the USA” [The New Republic]. ” I’m a homosexual man dwelling in a rustic that I worry is slowly however inexorably backsliding from flawed democracy to right-wing authoritarian rule, turning into a spot the place the rights and security of LGBTQ folks and different marginalized teams are more and more beneath assault by a Republican Celebration and right-wing majority Supreme Court docket that, given their method, wouldn’t hesitate to erase them totally. In such a state of affairs, it is smart to have an exit technique—whether or not twin citizenship, the power to work overseas, or another means to flee—within the maybe not inevitable however now not unthinkable occasion that the stuff of dystopian science fiction turns into actuality.” • In fact, in the event you’ve needed to take care of our well being care system, you’ve already skilled a dystopian science fiction actuality.

“Watch the Nice Fall” [The Abbey of Misrule]. “Nostalgia is a curious factor. The love of a lifeless previous is, on the floor, pointless, and but it appears to be a common, pan-cultural eager for one thing higher than an equally lifeless however usually much less attractive current. That is one thing which its critics by no means appear to know. ‘That’s simply nostalgia’, they are saying, dismissively, once you counsel {that a} excessive road made up of impartial outlets might need been higher than one big superstore, or that people songs across the fireplace within the pub is likely to be higher than Celeb Love Island. The suggestion appears to be that this factor, ‘nostalgia’, is a type of illness, like flu or measles, that simply hits you typically, with no rhyme or cause to it. In fact, there’s a treatment: a dedication to Progress. To the longer term, somewhat than to the previous. There was no Golden Age – however there will probably be! Preserve the religion. Preserve going. I’d counsel, as an alternative, that nostalgia generally is a rational response to a world heading within the mistaken route. Maybe a sensible response too.”

“Congress Members To Put on Barcodes So Lobbyists Can Scan Costs, Self-Checkout” [Babylon Bee]. From 2019, nonetheless germane.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however not like Eric Topol, I’m not calling a surge, as a result of the final peak was Biden’s Omicron debacle, and after an Everest like that, what’s left? Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the common acceleration or doubling in circumstances that I’d anticipate to see based mostly on previous surges.

I’m calling a “One thing Terrible.” It’s gonna be dangerous, in some new method, and we don’t know the way, but (however see right here for immune system dysregulation, which is wanting fairly terrible).

Lambert right here: Seems like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. Keep secure on the market!

• “It’s not the COVID financial system, it’s simply the financial system now” [Axios]. “‘COVID is now not taking part in an necessary function in our financial system,’ chair Jerome Powell informed reporters at a press convention Wednesday. The Fed chair’s feedback are a giant deal, marking the tip of an period — however they don’t imply COVID is gone. As a substitute, the shocks of the pandemic have reshaped the very material of the financial system itself. Powell was explaining why the FOMC dropped the time period ‘public well being’ from the danger components listed in its post-meeting assertion this week. COVID remains to be on the market, it’s value emphasizing. Individuals are dying from the illness every single day, and getting sick. One thing Powell understands personally, he stated. (He examined optimistic, with delicate signs, in January.) However ‘,’ he stated. It doesn’t actually should be in ‘a post-meeting assertion, as an ongoing financial threat — versus, , a well being situation.’” • In different phrases, our present excessive plateau (have a look at circumstances, positivity, and deaths) has been efficiently normalized (with, allow us to not neglect, mitigation for elites). Now we have a superb blueprint:

Now await local weather!

• And talking of normalization:

Normalization, and propaganda.

• “Reader query: Covid threat at a convention” [Violet Blue]. A superb wrap-up of what a private threat evaluation actually seems like, with ideas. Nicely value a learn. I feel many of the particular person gadgets will probably be acquainted to NC readers, however here’s a tip I’ve not seen: “As a result of covid has been allowed to freely mass-infect (and mass-re-infect) communities and populations, it has advanced on a supercharged schedule and we’re nearly out of treatments. Paxlovid is presently the final one left that works. Do not forget that many individuals haven’t been in a position to get their docs to present them Paxlovid and many folks can’t take it for a variety of reasons. Learn how the placement you’re touring to offers with Paxlovid; as an example, California has a wide range of free, no-contact choices. It might be that the lodge you’re staying at might assist; discover out prematurely.” • Good level on the lodge concierge, who might most likely additionally assist with sprays, and so forth.

• “We Now Face an Military of COVID Viruses” [The Tyee]. “What started as an airborne pandemic pushed by a single virus has grow to be a viral cloud roiling across the globe because of public insurance policies which have allowed unfettered transmission. As a consequence the pandemic now represents completely different threats in numerous areas for various lessons of individuals at completely different occasions. The rich elite attending Davos could also be protected by exams and clear air machines, however the remainder of us face contrasting realities. Some virologists have argued that individuals shouldn’t be involved by these evolutionary doings, and that the messy world of Omicron subvariants is healthier left to the consultants. However that’s a patronizing angle. The pandemic impacts us all, demanding residents make choices individually and collectively. So the purpose is to not be complacent or alarmed, however curious and attentive. Now we have entered an epoch of organic volatility and the dangers this entails demand fixed vigilance. Listed below are six observations on viral evolution and the way it could form our lives on this, the fourth yr of the pandemic.” The six: “1. One virus has grow to be many…. 2. The brand new COVID soup is a singular experiment in evolution…. 3. What had been viral peaks at the moment are a continuing rising sea of infections with excessive and low tides…. 4. One pandemic has morphed into regional epidemics…. 5. Reinfections hardly ever occurred. Now they’re commonplace…. 6. We will do extra to blunt the evolutionary risk of COVID subvariants.”

• “CO2.Click on Assessment – An Inexpensive CO2 Monitor with Superior Options” [Breathe Safe Air]. It is a good tutorial on CO2 displays and a typically favorable evaluation. One optimistic: The CO2.Click on has “a measurement titled ‘RFA’. RFA stands for the rebreathed fraction of air…. I really like this small addition as a result of whereas the components per million readings are helpful, the RFA proportion can be an excellent stat to share. If I’m with my mates they usually ask in regards to the monitor, it’s usually onerous to clarify carbon dioxide by way of components per million and their impression, as by the point I’ve defined it, they’ve often misplaced curiosity. Alternatively, if I clarify it as ‘you’re rebreathing 2% of your air proper now!’ they are usually much more .” One detrimental: “The construct high quality of the case additionally typically doesn’t really feel pretty much as good as a mass-manufactured product such because the Aranet4. The plastic high quality doesn’t really feel as excessive, and the machine feels extra fragile. Whereas I’d nonetheless be pleased to stay the CO2.Click on in my backpack and carry it round with me, I really feel extra assured within the construct high quality of units such because the Aranet4 or Qingping Air Monitor Lite.” • Additionally, the worth is correct!

• “I Purchased a CO2 Monitor, and It Broke Me” [The Atlantic]. • What’s mistaken with these folks? Useful recommendation:

Then once more, how indoor air strikes isn’t all that simple to know, is it?

• Look for the helpers:

• Dude, no:

To date, I haven’t seen one single dogpile or ethical panic about Corsi-Rosenthal bins. So let’s not enable the main target to float from engineering, mkay?

• “As many as 1 in 10 Coloradans could have been hit by lengthy COVID, a report says” [CPR News]. “State officers have launched their first estimate of how many individuals in Colorado have been hit by lengthy COVID-19. The determine is staggering: Information counsel that between 230,000 and 650,000 Coloradans could have been affected. With a state inhabitants of practically 6 million, the info counsel as many as one in 10 Coloradans have skilled lengthy COVID, in accordance with the report from The Workplace of Saving Individuals Cash on Healthcare within the Lt. Governor’s Workplace. And lots of of them have struggled to find treatments and answers about what generally is a life-altering sickness.” • I like it that there’s an “Workplace of Saving Individuals Cash on Healthcare.” Simply out of curiosity, why not single payer?

• An aggregation of Covid’s neurological results:

Case Information

BioBot wastewater data from February 3:

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater information as the most effective proxy for case information (ignoring the scientific case information portion of this chart, which for my part “goes dangerous” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). At the least we will spot developments, and examine present ranges to equal previous ranges.

• “Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Residence Testing and Check Positivity” [JAMA]. “Well timed SARS-CoV-2 testing is essential to lowering transmission.” Sure. Biden’s coverage is mass an infection with out mitigation, and therefore our skill to check has been nuked. Extra: “Our findings affirm widespread wisdom5,6 that official COVID-19 case counts more and more underestimate the quantity of people that check optimistic and vastly underestimate the variety of true infections. The share check positivity in formally reported exams seems to replicate dwelling check positivity, although these developments could also be diverging.” • However who is aware of? Who cares?

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “crimson map,” which is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.) The map is claimed to replace Monday-Friday by 8 pm:

The earlier map:

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (circumstances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor option to assess private threat. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t wish to get. Even if you’re not hospitalized, you possibly can undergo from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. That the “inexperienced map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) remains to be up and being taken significantly verges on the prison.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s test positivity tracker, revealed February 6:

0.2%. Nonetheless at a excessive plateau, equal to earlier peaks.

• “Nearly 1,000 folks wait as much as 13 hours for COVID-19 testing in Maryvale” [Arizona Central]. • Over, completely over.

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), January 30:

Once more, what the [family blog] is the [family blogging] use of a nationwide wastewater map the place practically all the gathering websites are [family blogging] greyed out?

January 30:

And MWRA information, February 2:

Seems to me like New England’s regional surge is winding down. No bump from the scholars returning.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, tutorial tempo completely incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling habits.

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), January 23:

Lambert right here: XBB overtakes BQ. CH not shifting too quick, reassuring, as a result of a Tweet in Links, January 11 from GM drew consideration to it (“shows such a excessive relative development benefit”) and in Water Cooler, January 18, from Nature: “CH.1.1 and CA.3.1 variants had been extremely proof against each monovalent and bivalent mRNA vaccinations.”

Lambert right here: Wierdly, the display screen shot about has been changed right this moment by information from “10/7/2022.” (It’s clearly not present information; BQ.1* and XBB don’t dominate.

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), January 14 (Weighted Estimates Solely*):

BQ.1* takes first place. XBB developing quick. (For BQ.1/XBB and vaccine escape, see here.) CH.* now seems, per week after Walgreens. Right here is Area 2, the Northeast:

CH.1* seems, however barely under the nationwide common. XBB completely dominates, making clear that Area 2 (New England) varies tremendously from the nationwide common.

Listed below are all of the areas, in a collection of uncaptioned, legend-free and complicated pie charts:

It nearly seems like, with respect to variants a minimum of, there a number of pandemics, not one. The Northeast, the place XBB (blue) dominates, and the opposite areas, with completely different proportions of different variants, however XBB not dominating. Odd. (Sure, I do know the colours are the identical as on the bar chart above. Nonetheless, there are two charts, one bar, one pie, and on a laptop computer one can not see each at similar time. Simply one other instance of CDC blithering on the degree of the smallest element.)

NOTE * CDC used to have a “Nowcast Off” radio button, which I used due to my dangerous expertise with CDC fashions like Nowcast. CDC explains (I feel) the change within the following notice:

Weighted estimates (supplied for all weeks besides the newest three weeks) are variant proportions which might be based mostly on empirical (noticed) genomic sequencing information. These estimates aren’t out there for the newest weeks due to the time it takes to generate the unweighted information, together with pattern assortment, specimen therapy, delivery, evaluation, and add into public databases.

Sublineages with weighted estimates lower than 1% of all circulating variants are mixed with their mother or father lineage. When the weighted estimate of a sublineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions within the spike protein that might have an effect on vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it might be separated from its mother or father lineage and displayed by itself within the variant proportions information.

Nowcast estimates (supplied for the newest three weeks when the “Nowcast on” possibility is chosen under) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the newest weeks to allow well timed public well being motion. CDC makes use of the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions earlier than the weighted estimates can be found for a given week.

Somebody who can interpret The Nice Runes can have a look at this; however I don’t have time right this moment.

• “CH.1.1 ‘Orthrus’: How Regarding Is This New Covid-19 Subvariant?” [Forbes]. “Guess what. Yet one more new Covid-19 coronavirus subvariant has been spreading. This one’s referred to as CH.1.1, and it’s a descendant of the BA.2.75, that beautiful Omicron subvariant that I wrote about for Forbes in July 2022. The CH.1.1 has a mutation that was current within the Delta variant, that beautiful variant that turned what some prematurely thought can be the Summer time of Intercourse in 2021 into the Summer time of Surge. Since CH.1.1 will not be the simplest identify to say, some have been calling this the ‘Orthrus’ subvariant, which is in no way an official identify. Orthrus is the two-headed canine in Greek mythology who guarded Geryon’s cattle, versus your on a regular basis run-of-the-mill two-headed canine that you just see close to the native Starbucks. It’s not shocking that the CH.1.1 has emerged as a result of mutate is one thing that the extreme acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has confirmed that it may possibly do. The massive query is how “ruff” will this “Orthrus” subvariant be on everybody.”

As a examine, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date February 4:

Hospitalization information for Queens, up to date February 3:

Deaths

Demise charge (Our World in Data):

Total: 1,136,313 – 1,135,341 = 972 (972 * 365 = 354,780 deaths per yr, right this moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of demise and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like all the things else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job. (Although CDC could also be jiggering the numbers quickly. Decrease, naturally.)

Stats Watch

There aren’t any officers statistics of curiosity right this moment.

Tech: “When Does Elon Musk Sleep? Billionaire Speaks of Limits to Fixing Twitter and His Again Ache” [Wall Street Journal]. “His schedule has grow to be a part of the person’s delusion. Final month, a fan on social media marveled at Mr. Musk’s single-day itinerary: He testified in a lawsuit that morning, attended a Tesla occasion in Nevada that night after which met with Tesla’s artificial-intelligence group late into the night time.” • Good luck on the AI factor. Let me know the way it works out.

Tech:

I used to be about to argue that crypto isn’t represenational, however then… NFTs. No pr0n NFTs. Hmm.

At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 75 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 76 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 67 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 6 at 1:16 PM EST.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most!

The Conservatory

Pretty guitar intro, and probably the most effective segue in dwell rock and roll:

“Why Did the Beatles Get So Many Unhealthy Opinions?” [The Honest Broker]. “I feel it’s extra precious to ask how these critics, specialists of their discipline, not solely missed the mark, however in such an absurd method. They actually had been handed the best recordings of their period to evaluation, and blew them off. Each traditional tune on these albums was not solely attacked, however truly mocked…. I now understand that the Beatles had been getting punished for the way shortly they had been pushing rock music forward. For those who learn sufficient of those hit items, you retain listening to the frustration that the brand new Beatles album doesn’t sound just like the earlier one….. The unhappy fact is the critics usually function by wanting within the rearview mirror. Like generals, they fail on the battlefield as a result of their technique is constructed on the final battle. And that’s the identical cause why jazz critics attacked Charlie Parker, Dizzy Gillespie, and Thelonious Monk within the Nineteen Forties. Or Coltrane within the Sixties. And many others. and so forth. And are most likely making related missteps within the present day…. I increase all this primarily to present the Beatles full credit score for his or her achievement. No musicians in historical past, by my measure, ever labored so courageously to disrupt the exact same formulation that they themselves created. Maybe Miles Davis comes shut, however even Miles would solely make a serious change in his fashion each two or three years. The Beatles reinvented themselves with each album.”

The Gallery

This, to me, is what a “regular” home seems like (nicely, possibly not the canine. However the book-cases at proper). It’s my baseline:

Which classifies and dates me fairly precisely!

Maybe if I had been French I’d really feel the identical method about this:

Class Warfare

“SEIU Native 1 Lays off 10 Staffers Amid Allegations That Dues Stay Uncollected” [In These Times]. “n January 31, Service Staff Worldwide Union (SEIU) Native 1 — the founding native of the 2-million-member worldwide union — laid off 10 of its 89 unionized staffers after little over two weeks’ discover on account of a price range shortfall. 9 of these impacted by layoffs are organizers or grievance representatives, which is sort of a 3rd of the member-facing workers on the union, in accordance with the Chicago Information Guild, the union that represents Native 1 staffers. ‘All of us on the bottom truly doing the organizing, doing the work, constructing coalitions — we obtained laid off,’ says Emily Little, a laid-off Native 1 staffer who helped set up staff in sports activities stadiums in Columbus, Ohio. Anne Balay, one other laid-off staffer who spent three years organizing adjunct professors at 4 universities in St. Louis, Mo., tells In These Instances she is anxious about her members, a few of whom now not have an organizer on their campaigns. ‘All of us on the bottom truly doing the organizing, doing the work, constructing coalitions—we obtained laid off.’ Native 1 staffer Adam Stant (who was not topic to layoff) says that these layoffs come at a second when the labor motion needs to be hiring, not firing, organizers. An Financial Coverage Institute report presents proof that implies 60 million staff would be part of a union if they could. Some labor observers argue that the bottleneck stopping these staff from having a union is unions themselves. ​’There was no funding within the military of union organizers crucial to satisfy demand,’ writes Hamilton Nolan in a 2022 In These Instances article, citing a 2022 report exhibiting that .” • Unions are like universities, then?

“REI, union agree to carry election after Cleveland staff stroll out” [Bicycle Retailer]. ” After REI Co-op’s Beachwood suburb retailer staff walked off the job minutes earlier than their shifts Friday morning, the shop agreed to phrases with the union to carry an election. In response to the Retail, Wholesale and Division Retailer Union (RWDSU), staff returned to work at 1:30 p.m. The settlement got here after staff walked out at 9:45 a.m., demanding the correct to vote in a free and truthful Nationwide Labor Relations Board (NLRB) election and for the corporate to cease what the RWDSU referred to as ‘illegal surveillance’ of staff. The election will embrace all NLRB-eligible staff on the Ohio retailer, a reversal from REI’s place final week. It’s going to happen on March 3 from noon-6 p.m. EST on the Beachwood retailer. The employees walked out as an NLRB listening to was about to start Friday. The listening to was scheduled due to staff’ calls for for the correct to vote in a free and truthful election and ‘for the corporate to cease its union busting.’ REI wished to take away greater than half of the eligible members and to dismiss the election on the listening to, the union stated. … Earlier union elections occurred on the New York Metropolis and Berkeley, California, REI shops. Beachwood’s unionization efforts have been ongoing for greater than a yr. On Jan. 11, its staff filed to have a union election and sought RWDSU illustration.”

“Ohio union membership on the rise” [Axios Cleveland]. Native Axios bureaus is an intriguing improvement: “The share of statewide staff represented by a union rose from 13% in 2021 to 14% final yr. Which may appear to be a modest improve, however it quantities to 52,000 extra Ohioans belonging to organizations designed to advance and shield their rights at work. The rise is additional proof of a rising labor motion involving native staff at Ohio establishments and international corporations alike.” • The nationwide story is somewhat completely different. Useful map:

It makes good sense that the poor can’t cheer-lead:

Information of the Wired

“Jury guidelines in favor of yard pizza oven homeowners in Cleveland Heights lawsuit” [WKYC]. “In response to the criticism, the scenario dates again to Could 2017 when the Jones household knowledgeable the defendants that use and operation of the oven would fill their residence ‘with smoke and fumes and causes the Joneses vital bodily discomfort and emotional misery.’ The criticism additionally acknowledged that ‘on many events’ use and operation of the pizza oven ‘has induced insupportable smoke and fumes on the Jones residence, and has induced vital bodily discomfort, psychological anguish and lack of use and delight’ of their residence…. The Jones couple admitted to having gone over to their neighbor’s dwelling for pizza, having fun with the meals and the go to previous to submitting the swimsuit. It makes the lawyer for the defendants query, why sue now?” • The primary installment for “Really feel Good Cleveland Week,” and I needed to work tougher than with Fresno. Can readers assist?

Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are nice! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From ChetG:

ChetG writes: “Right here is an icicle collective, made doable by dense bushes. My spouse had a coronary heart assault on November 26, and the shock of it’s nonetheless with us, particularly by way of current and upcoming physician visits. So my focus is none too good, and I’ve solely begun going outdoor and taking pictures once more in January.” I at all times discover that taking images washes my thoughts freed from loads of stressors. Very calming. Most likely not true for some, like road photographers, however I take a contemplative method. And better of luck to ChetG and his spouse.

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives: